Preface: This post is meant to be an analysis of data, not expression of a political opinion or bias – at least to the extent that is possible!
Republican voters overwhelmingly dominated the first day of early voting in 9 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, including the five southernmost New Jersey counties where I live and work. In Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Ocean, and Salem counties Republicans outvoted Democrats by almost a 2:1 ratio. 54% of all ballots recorded on Saturday were cast by registered Republicans.
Statewide, we see a different story:
- Democrat voters outpaced Republican voters, 42% to 39%.
- The 19% of independent voters who cast a ballot on Saturday was notable less than the 25% of overall ratio of independent voters in the state. (This gap of voters are the target of the ads that will bombard us over the next week).
- First day early voting makes up 1/3 or more of the total votes that will be cast in this election, so this a significant sample size.
- political party activity ratios for first day early voting mirror the mail in voting results that the state published earlier. Democrats maintain an advantage in each.
What about cross-party voting? A 2023 report from the Rutgers Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling stated that New Jersey registered voters are “more likely to say they will vote for Democrats up and down the ballot” — implying fewer cross-party votes by registered Democrats. I’ve been referring to this as the anti-Trump factor that I see as a crucial but mostly unmeasured factor in this election.
What’s the point?
My point in posting this data is to emphasize and reinforce prior observations:
- Republican enthusiasm is high. That’s what makes this race so difficult to predict.
- Southern New Jersey is much different than state averages.
- Southern New Jersey is a small almost insignificant portion, of the state’s overall voting force.
- The statewide polls of a narrow Democratic edge are probably right.
The data:
